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July 25th 2008

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Property return doubts as yields fall to 20-year low

BY phil craig

Record low yields in the UK property market are leading to concerns about future returns for investments in the sector.

Investment Property Databank (IPD) statistics show initial yields from UK property stood at 4.71% in August, the lowest level since the mid-1980s.

Concerns about prospects for property markets led intermediary AWD Chase de Vere to highlight the risks of short-term property investments.

In a statement last week about the Keydata Property Income Bond, which promises income of 7% per year over a six-year term based on investments in US residential properties, research manager Justine Frears said property returns are under pressure. She added the Keydata product may struggle to fund suitable investments in a reasonable time period.

In response, Keydata's sales director Mark Owen said the product was pre-seeded with £10m of residential property.

This comes as Cofunds reveals its top 20 sellers include Norwich Property, New Star Property, M&G Property, Standard Life Investments Select Property and Swip Property. The New Star, Norwich Union, Standard Life and Swip funds also feature in FundsNetwork's year-to-date top 10.

While retail investors are clearly still piling into property, institutional property investment specialist Andrew Hynard, of Jones Lang LaSalle, said the asset class has already seen its best returns for this point in the cycle.

"Total returns are unlikely to match what they achieved last year," he said, explaining there is more demand to buy than investment stock on the market.

Hynard added the retail appetite for property is a result of good returns in recent years.

"The retail money is coming in a bit late in the cycle," he said. "However, there are diverse sources of demand, with interest from the Middle East and North America coming in as well."

Martin Brookes, manager of Prudential's £69bn Life fund, said property returns have been far above normal over the past 10 years.

"We concur the UK property market looks expensive," he said, explaining that over the past 18 months his fund's asset allocation to property has dropped from 17% to 15%, a reallocation of around £1.4bn in assets.

Ian Hally, head of property research at Swip, said while average total returns for the past five years stood at around 12%, the average yield over the next five years will fall to around 6%.

"If investors think they will get another five years of double-digit performance, they will be disappointed," he said.

Janet Leasom, property product specialist at Morley Fund Management, which manages the £3.1bn Norwich Property Trust, believes returns on property are still supporting investors in the asset class. That said, she also stressed the double-digit returns of recent years may not continue.

The Norwich fund is seeing £5m of inflows a day, according to Leasom, but, due to the time it takes to complete a property transaction, it had a cash holding of 15.4% at the end of July this year.